Why Obama is pushing for stimulus in 'fiscal cliff' deal

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How about a little government economic stimulus?


That may sound incongruous considering the budget deficit and the push from Republicans to cut government spending.


But President Obama’s first offer to avoid going over the "fiscal cliff" holds out the hope of at least some stimulus. This would include extending the 2 percentage point Social Security payroll tax cut, boosting a tax incentive to businesses, establishing a $50 billion bank for long-term infrastructure projects, and extending unemployment benefits.


RECOMMENDED: 'Fiscal cliff' 101: 5 basic questions answered


The total bill: about $255 billion out of the federal government's pocket – an amount the GOP would likely say needs to be offset by spending cuts elsewhere.


The argument in favor of such stimulus? The tax measures, at least, could minimize the drag on the economy from Mr. Obama's proposed tax increases on the wealthy.


“The increases in the top two income tax brackets would put a drag on consumption, so I think, from the Obama point of view, the spending or tax cuts are designed to offset that drag to consumption,” says Michael Brown, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, N.C.


But to some budget experts, Obama’s list seems more like an opening round of negotiations, where he has asked for a lot more than he will get.


“It looks to me like these are bargaining chips,” says Pete Davis of Davis Capital Ideas, which advises Wall Street firms. “Even most Democrats had given up on the prospect of getting the payroll tax cut extended.”


Mr. Davis considers the odds of most of the stimulus proposals passing Congress “very low.”


What's needed most, say others, is just buckling down and negotiating an end to the fiscal cliff. “Cancelling the fiscal cliff is economic stimulus,” says Stan Collender, a budget expert and partner at Qorvis Communications in Washington.


If Obama's stimulus were passed, however, here is a look at the impact the four elements might have.


SOCIAL SECURITY PAYROLL TAX CUT


The largest chunk of the Obama plan is the extension of the payroll tax cut. This is the money that comes out of an individual’s paycheck as a contribution to Social Security. Two years ago, in an effort to stimulate the economy, Congress decreased the individual contribution from 6.2 percent to 4.2 percent. The employer’s contribution of 6.2 percent remained unchanged.


The Obama administration estimates extending the cuts would cost the government as much as $115 billion in revenue.


The argument for extending the tax cut is that it helps lower-income workers who live paycheck to paycheck. “The difference in the paycheck might be the ability to pay the electric bill for someone or the chance to go to a sit-down restaurant once a month,” says Chris Christopher, an economist at IHS in Lexington, Mass.


The argument against continuing the cut is that it is weakening the Social Security Trust Fund. In order to make up for the loss of contributions, the government taps the general tax revenues, says Pamela Tainter-Causey, a spokeswoman for the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.


“It sets up Social Security to compete for funding from the general fund,” she says. “It’s a perfect set up for people who are gunning for the program and claim we can’t afford it now.”


BUSINESS TAX INCENTIVE


The second largest program proposed by Obama would be the extension of accelerated depreciation for business, which would cost the US Treasury about $65 billion in fiscal year 2013, according to the Congressional Budget Office.


Two years ago, business was allowed to accelerate the write-off of 100 percent of its spending on certain capital equipment. Capital spending on equipment and computer software soared by 18.3 percent in 2011.


Then, this year, the benefit to business was cut in half to 50 percent. Capital spending sank in the third quarter by 2.7 percent compared with the same quarter the prior year. With business interest in using the tax break diminishing, economist Gregory Daco of IHS says “it’s a goner.”


INFRASTRUCTURE BANK


Obama has also proposed a $50 billion infrastructure bank. The idea is to fund roads, bridges, tunnels and other large projects that last for a long period of time. “At the moment the funding is done on a cash basis – you have to pay for it as you build it,” says Mr. Collender.


Democrats have been trying to get Congress to fund the bank for the past 10 years, he says. “It does not have a chance of getting through the House," which is controlled by the Republicans, says Mr. Collender.


UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS


And, finally, Obama wants to extend unemployment benefits, which would cost about $30 billion.


Under current law, if Congress does nothing, the maximum number of weeks in which an individual could receive jobless will drop to 26 from the current 73 weeks for states with unemployment over 9 percent and 63 weeks for states with unemployment over 7 percent.


If Congress does nothing about the program during the lame-duck session, some 2.1 million jobless will lose their benefits in the first week of January, says Judy Conti, a federal advocacy coordinator at the National Employment Law Project (NELP) in Washington. By the end of the March, she says, another 900,000 people will lose their benefits.


“Forty percent of the unemployed are long term unemployed,” she says. “They have been out of the workforce for over six months.”


RECOMMENDED: 'Fiscal cliff' 101: 5 basic questions answered



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N. Korea rocket preparations might be a bluff

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SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Rocket sections are apparently being trucked into North Korea's northwest launch site, but some analysts are asking whether it's just a calculated bluff meant to jangle the Obama administration and influence South Korean voters ahead of presidential elections in three weeks.

There are questions about whether North Korean scientists have corrected whatever caused the embarrassing crackup of its last rocket shortly after liftoff in April, and whether Pyongyang is willing to risk another failure — along with U.N. condemnation and more sanctions.

"It's possible, of course, that Pyongyang knows its preparations will be seen and discussed in the West, and they are intended to be a signal rather than signs of an imminent launch," David Wright, a physicist with the Union of Concerned Scientists, wrote on the organization's website this week. "Preparing for a launch less than a year after a failure calls into question whether the North could have analyzed and fixed whatever went wrong."

Before its last two launches, North Korea notified international organizations of its plans to send a satellite into orbit aboard a rocket. Neither the International Maritime Organization nor the International Civil Aviation Organization has responded to requests from The Associated Press for information. But South Korea and analysts say North Korea has yet to provide such notification, something that usually happens weeks in advance.

Even if a launch never comes, the mere preparations could be an attempt to influence the Dec. 19 presidential election in rival South Korea and raise Pyongyang on President Barack Obama's list of foreign policy priorities as he prepares to be inaugurated for his second term in January.

North Korea has repeatedly tried to interfere with South Korean elections, according to government officials and analysts, and there's speculation that Pyongyang's rocket work could be an attempt to raise worries as campaigning heats up.

North Korea presumably prefers the liberal candidate, Moon Jae-in, the argument goes. Another provocation, or simply heightened tensions, could be seen by voters as evidence of a failed North Korea policy by the current conservative leader in Seoul.

Both Moon and the conservative contender, Park Geun-hye, have signaled a softening on North Korea policy. But Moon has suggested a return to an accommodating policy of engagement and aid for Pyongyang that has been missing during the five years of President Lee Myung-bak's rule, which ends in February when his single term expires.

"If indeed a new satellite launch is North Korea's next provocation, it will be an early test of South Korean candidate commitments to reopen dialogue with the North," Scott Snyder, senior fellow for Korea studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote this week.

Pyongyang could also be trying to send a message to Obama following his re-election. Pyongyang has previously staged what Washington and Seoul consider provocations around elections in both the United States and South Korea. North Korea conducted a rocket and nuclear test within months of Obama taking office in early 2009.

Washington worries about North Korean launches because long-range rocket technology can be easily converted into use for missiles that could target the United States.

Analysis of recent satellite images written for 38 North, the website for the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, suggests Pyongyang could be ready to launch a three-stage rocket by the end of the first week in December.

The timing of the preparations has some analysts expecting a launch.

North Korea's April rocket firing came during celebrations of the centennial of the birth of national founder Kim Il Sung, current leader Kim Jong Un's grandfather. Pyongyang has declared 2012 a crucial year for its scientific and economic development, and there has been speculation that it could do something extraordinary to mark its conclusion.

Dec. 17 also marks the one-year anniversary of the death of Kim Jong Un's father, Kim Jong Il.

Because North Korea's missile and nuclear programs aren't transparent, said Daniel Pinkston, a North Korea analyst at the International Crisis Group, outsiders cannot determine what went wrong with the April test and what scientists are doing to address the problem.

Any launch attempt raises the specter of failure, Pinkston said, but "they call it rocket science because ... it's hard. Everyone makes mistakes ... but every time you test, you get to go back and work on those problems and fix them."

Baek Seung-joo, an analyst at the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in South Korea, said past failure could actually be a spur to try again.

"North Korea needs to redeem its embarrassing rocket failure in April," he said.

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AP writer Sam Kim contributed to this report from Seoul.

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Apple overcomes last hurdle, iPhone 5 cleared for sale in China as Android continues to dominate

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Adkins explains Confederate flag earpiece

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NEW YORK (AP) — Trace Adkins wore an earpiece decorated like the Confederate flag when he performed for the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree Lighting but says he meant no offense by it.

Adkins appeared with the earpiece on a nationally televised special for the lighting on Wednesday. Some regard the flag as a racist symbol and criticized Adkins in Twitter postings.

But in a statement released Thursday, the Louisiana native called himself a proud American who objects to any oppression and says the flag represents his Southern heritage.

He noted he's a descendant of Confederate soldiers and says he did not intend offense by wearing it.

Adkins — on a USO tour in Japan — also called for the preservation of America's battlefields and an "honest conversation about the country's history."

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Online:

http://www.traceadkins.com

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Ukraine fights spreading HIV epidemic

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BUCHA, Ukraine (AP) — Andrei Mandrykin, an inmate at Prison No. 85 outside Kiev, has HIV. He looks ghostly and much older than his 35 years. But Mandrykin is better off than tens of thousands of his countrymen, because is he receiving treatment amid what the World Health Organization says is the worst AIDS epidemic in Europe.

Ahead of World AIDS Day on Saturday, international organizations have urged the Ukrainian government to increase funding for treatment and do more to prevent HIV from spreading from high-risk groups into the mainstream population, where it is even harder to manage and control.

An estimated 230,000 Ukrainians, or about 0.8 percent of people aged 15 to 49, are living with HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. Some 120,000 are in urgent need of anti-retroviral therapy, which can greatly prolong and improve the quality of their lives. But due to a lack of funds, fewer than a quarter are receiving the drugs — one of the lowest levels in the world.

Ukraine's AIDS epidemic is still concentrated among high-risk groups such as intravenous drug users, sex workers, homosexuals and prisoners. But nearly half of new cases registered last year were traced to unprotected heterosexual contact.

"Slowly but surely the epidemic is moving from the most-at-risk, vulnerable population to the general population," said Nicolas Cantau of The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, who manages work in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. "For the moment there is not enough treatment in Ukraine."

Stigma is also a big problem for those with HIV in Ukraine. Liliya, a 65-year-old woman who would give only her first name, recently attended a class on how to tell her 9-year-old great-granddaughter that she has HIV. The girl, who contacted HIV at birth from her drug-abusing mother, has been denied a place in preschool because of her diagnosis.

"People are like wolves, they don't understand," said Liliya. "If any of the parents found out, they would eat the child alive."

While the AIDS epidemic has plateaued elsewhere in the world, it is still progressing in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, according to Cantau. Nearly 21,200 new cases were reported in Ukraine in 2011, the highest number since the former Soviet republic registered its first case in 1987, and a 3 percent increase over 2010. As a result of limited and often delayed treatment, the number of AIDS-related deaths grew 17 percent last year to about 3,800.

Two years ago, Mandrykin, the prisoner, was on the verge of becoming part of that statistic, with his level of crucial CD4 immune cells — a way to measure the strength of the immune system — dropping to 11. In a healthy person, the CD4 count is usually over 600.

"I was lying in the hospital, I was dying," said Mandrykin, who is serving seven years for robbery, his fourth stint in jail. "It's a scary disease."

After two years of treatment in a small prison clinic, his CD4 count has risen to 159 and he feels much better, although he looks exhausted and is still too weak to work in the workshop of the medium-security prison.

The Ukrainian government currently focuses on testing and treating standard cases among the general population. The anti-retroviral treatment of more than 1,000 inmates, as well as some 10,000 HIV patients across Ukraine who also require treatment for tuberculosis and other complications and all prevention and support activities, are paid for by foreign donors, mainly the Global Fund.

The Global Fund is committed to spending $640 million through 2016 to fight AIDS and tuberculosis in Ukraine and then hopes to hand over most of its programs to the Ukrainian government.

Advocacy groups charge that corruption and indifference by government officials help fuel the epidemic.

During the past two years, Ukrainian authorities have seized vital AIDS drugs at the border due to technicalities, sent prosecutors to investigate AIDS support groups sponsored by the Global Fund and harassed patients on methadone substitution therapy, prompting the Global Fund to threaten to freeze its prevention grant.

Most recently, Ukraine's parliament gave initial approval to a bill that would impose jail terms of up to five years for any positive public depiction of homosexuality. Western organizations say it would make the work of AIDS prevention organizations that distribute condoms and teach safe homosexual sex illegal and further fuel the epidemic. It is unclear when the bill will come up for a final vote.

AIDS drug procurement is another headache, with Ukrainian health authorities greatly overpaying for AIDS drugs. Advocacy groups accuse health officials of embezzling funds by purchasing drugs at inflated prices and then pocketing kickbacks.

Officials deny those allegations, saying their tender procedures are transparent.

Much also remains to be done in Ukraine to educate people about AIDS.

Oksana Golubova, a 40-year-old former drug user, infected her daughter, now 8, with HIV and lost her first husband to AIDS. But she still has unprotected sex with her new husband, saying his health is in God's hands.

"Those who are afraid get infected," Golubova said.

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Palestinians celebrate U.N. victory

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LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Michael Jackson's father, Joe Jackson, has suffered a stroke but is OK and resting in a Las Vegas hospital, a family friend said on Thursday. "He was doing well and says he's feeling OK," close family friend Brian Oxman told Reuters. Oxman, Michael Jackson's one-time attorney, said the 83-year-old patriarch of the pop music family started experiencing weakness on Wednesday while walking in a park near his home and was later admitted to a hospital. Jackson has a history of strokes, Oxman said. "He was talking fine," Oxman added. "He sounded excellent to me." A former ...
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Myanmar cracks down on mine protest; dozens hurt

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MONYWA, Myanmar (AP) — Security forces used water cannons, tear gas and smoke bombs Thursday to clear protesters from a copper mine in northwestern Myanmar, wounding villagers and Buddhist monks just hours before opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi arrived in the area to hear their grievances.

Monks and other protesters had serious burns after the crackdown at the Letpadaung mine near the town of Monywa.

"I didn't expect to be treated like this, as we were peacefully protesting," said Aung Myint Htway, a peanut farmer whose face and body were covered with black patches of burned skin.

The police action risks becoming a public relations and political fiasco for the reformist government of President Thein Sein, which has been touting its transition to democracy after almost five decades of repressive military rule.

"This is unacceptable," said Ottama Thara, a 25-year-old monk who was at the protest. "This kind of violence should not happen under a government that says it is committed to democratic reforms."

Suu Kyi's visit to nearby Kan Kone village had been scheduled before the crackdown, and thousands of people were waiting to hear speak Thursday afternoon.

The Nobel Peace laureate, elected to parliament after spending most of the last two decades under house arrest, greeted supporters as her car drove slowly through the crowds, but the vehicle drove past the stage where she was supposed to speak. She instead headed to the mine to talk to its operators before making her speech.

The protesters oppose the environmental and social damage they say is being caused by the mining operation, which is a joint venture between a Chinese company and a holding company controlled by Myanmar's military. Most people remain suspicious of the military, while China is widely seen as having propped up army rule for years, in addition to being an aggressive investor exploiting the country's many natural resources.

Government officials had publicly stated that the protest risked scaring off foreign investment that is key to rebuilding the economy after decades of neglect.

State television broadcast an announcement Tuesday night that ordered protesters to cease their occupation of the mine by midnight or face legal action. It said the protesters began occupying the mine area Nov. 18, and operations had been halted since then.

Some villagers among a claimed 1,000 protesters left the mine after the order was issued. But others stayed through Wednesday, including about 100 monks. Police moved in to disperse them early Thursday.

"Around 2:30 a.m. police announced they would give us five minutes to leave," Aung Myint Htway said. He said police fired water cannons first and then shot what he and others called flare guns.

"They fired black balls that exploded into fire sparks. They shot about six times. People ran away and they followed us," he said, still writhing hours later from pain. "It's very hot."

Photos of the wounded monks showed they had sustained serious burns on parts of their bodies. It was unclear what sort of weapon caused them, or whether the burns were caused by their shelters catching fire from whatever devices police used.

The protesters' concerns about the mine do not appear to be widely shared by the broader public. But hurting monks — as admired for their social activism as they are revered for their spiritual beliefs — is sure to antagonize many ordinary people, especially as Suu Kyi's visit highlights the events.

Aung Myint Htway said he didn't care that police treated him badly but added, "I won't forgive them for what they did to our monks."

According to a nurse at a Monywa hospital, 27 monks and one other person were admitted with burns caused by some sort of projectile that released sparks or embers. Two monks with serious injuries were sent for treatment in Mandalay, Myanmar's second-biggest city, a 2½ hour drive away.

Other evicted protesters gathered at a Buddhist temple about 5 kilometers (3 miles) from the mine's gates.

The government defended its actions in a statement issued Thursday afternoon and broadcast over state television. It denied using excessive force and said it used fire hoses, tear gas and smoke bombs according to international standards for riot control.

The statement declared that the authorities took action for the sake of rule of law and in the interests of the country and its people, and said the project operated in accordance with international standards to protect the environment.

The protest is the latest major example of increased activism by citizens since the elected government took over last year. Political and economic liberalization under Thein Sein has won praise from Western governments, which have eased sanctions imposed on the previous military government because of its poor record on human and civil rights. However, the military still retains major influence over the government, and some critics fear that democratic gains could easily be rolled back.

In Myanmar's main city of Yangon, six activists who staged a small protest against the mine were detained Monday and Tuesday, said one of their colleagues, who asked not to be identified because he did not want to attract attention from the authorities.

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Lindsay Lohan arrested on assault charge in NYC

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NEW YORK (AP) — Actress Lindsay Lohan was arrested Thursday after police said she hit a woman during an argument at a New York City nightclub.

The "Mean Girls" and "Freaky Friday" star was arrested at 4 a.m. and charged with third-degree assault.

She allegedly got into the spat with another woman at Club Avenue, in Manhattan's Chelsea section. She struck the woman in face with her hand, police said. The victim did not require medical attention.

Her publicist did not immediately return a call for comment.

The arrest is Lohan's latest brush with law enforcement in New York City.

She was involved in a NYPD investigation in September after alleging a man had assaulted her in a New York hotel, but charges against the man were later dropped.

Also in September, the actress was accused of clipping a man with her car outside another Manhattan nightclub, but prosecutors chose not to move ahead with charges.

In October, police were called to her childhood home on Long Island after a report of fight between her and her mother. An investigation revealed "no criminality."

The actress was also involved in a car accident in California this summer that sent her and an assistant to a hospital, but didn't result in serious injuries for anyone. The accident remains under investigation.

In May, she was cleared of allegations that she struck a Hollywood nightclub manager with her car.

Lohan remains on informal probation for taking a necklace from a jewelry store without permission last year. That means she doesn't have to check in with a judge or probation officer but could face a jail term if arrested again.

Her latest film, "Liz & Dick," in which she portrays screen icon Elizabeth Taylor, premiered on Lifetime on Sunday.

Lohan also recently filmed "The Canyons," an indie film written by "Less Than Zero" and "American Psycho" author Bret Easton Ellis.

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Simple measures cut infections caught in hospitals

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CHICAGO (AP) — Preventing surgery-linked infections is a major concern for hospitals and it turns out some simple measures can make a big difference.

A project at seven big hospitals reduced infections after colorectal surgeries by nearly one-third. It prevented an estimated 135 infections, saving almost $4 million, the Joint Commission hospital regulating group and the American College of Surgeons announced Wednesday. The two groups directed the 2 1/2-year project.

Solutions included having patients shower with special germ-fighting soap before surgery, and having surgery teams change gowns, gloves and instruments during operations to prevent spreading germs picked up during the procedures.

Some hospitals used special wound-protecting devices on surgery openings to keep intestine germs from reaching the skin.

The average rate of infections linked with colorectal operations at the seven hospitals dropped from about 16 percent of patients during a 10-month phase when hospitals started adopting changes to almost 11 percent once all the changes had been made.

Hospital stays for patients who got infections dropped from an average of 15 days to 13 days, which helped cut costs.

"The improvements translate into safer patient care," said Dr. Mark Chassin, president of the Joint Commission. "Now it's our job to spread these effective interventions to all hospitals."

Almost 2 million health care-related infections occur each year nationwide; more than 90,000 of these are fatal.

Besides wanting to keep patients healthy, hospitals have a monetary incentive to prevent these infections. Medicare cuts payments to hospitals that have lots of certain health care-related infections, and those cuts are expected to increase under the new health care law.

The project involved surgeries for cancer and other colorectal problems. Infections linked with colorectal surgery are particularly common because intestinal tract bacteria are so abundant.

To succeed at reducing infection rates requires hospitals to commit to changing habits, "to really look in the mirror and identify these things," said Dr. Clifford Ko of the American College of Surgeons.

The hospitals involved were Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles; Cleveland Clinic in Ohio; Mayo Clinic-Rochester Methodist Hospital in Rochester, Minn.; North Shore-Long Island Jewish Health System in Great Neck, NY; Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago; OSF Saint Francis Medical Center in Peoria, Ill.; and Stanford Hospital & Clinics in Palo Alto, Calif.

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Online:

Joint Commission: http://www.jointcommission.org

American College of Surgeons: http://www.facs.org

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AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Two winners in record Powerball jackpot

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Winning tickets for the record Powerball jackpot worth more than $587 million were purchased in Arizona and Missouri.


Missouri Lottery official Susan Goedde confirmed to ABC News this morning that one of the winning tickets was purchased in the state, but they would not announce which town until later this morning.


Arizona lottery officials said they had no information on that state's winner or winners but would announce where it was sold during a news conference later in the day.


The winning numbers for the jackpot were 5, 23, 16, 22 and 29. The Powerball was 6.


The jackpot swelled to $587.5 million, according to Lottery official Sue Dooley. The two winners will split the jackpot each getting $293.75 million. The cash payout is $192.5 million each.


An additional 8,924,123 players won smaller prizes, according to Powerball's website.


"There were 58 winners of $1 million and there were eight winners of $2 million. So a total of $74 million," said Chuck Strutt, Director of the Multi-State Lottery Association.


In Photos: Biggest Lotto Jackpot Winners


This is the 27th win for Missouri, ranking it second in the nation for lottery winners after Indiana, which has 38 wins. Arizona has had 10 Powerball jackpot wins in its history.


Players bought tickets at the rate of 131,000 every minute up until an hour before the deadline of 11 p.m. ET, according to lottery officials.


The jackpot had already rolled over 16 consecutive times without a winner. That fact, plus the doubling in price of a Powerball ticket, accounted for the unprecedented richness of the pot.


"Back in January, we moved Powerball from being a $1 game to $2," said Mary Neubauer, a spokeswoman at the game's headquarters in Iowa. "We thought at the time that this would mean bigger and faster-growing jackpots."


That proved true. The total, she said, began taking "huge jumps -- another $100 million since Saturday." It then jumped another $50 million.


The biggest Powerball pot on record until now -- $365 million -- was won in 2006 by eight Lincoln, Neb., co-workers.
As the latest pot swelled, lottery officials said they began getting phone calls from all around the world.


"When it gets this big," said Neubauer, "we get inquiries from Canada and Europe from people wanting to know if they can buy a ticket. They ask if they can FedEx us the money."


The answer she has to give them, she said, is: "Sorry, no. You have to buy a ticket in a member state from a licensed retail location."


About 80 percent of players don't choose their own Powerball number, opting instead for a computer-generated one.
Asked if there's anything a player can do to improve his or her odds of winning, Neubauer said there isn't -- apart from buying a ticket, of course.


Lottery officials put the odds of winning this Powerball pot at one in 175 million, meaning you'd have been 25 times more likely to win an Academy Award.


Skip Garibaldi, a professor of mathematics at Emory University in Atlanta, provided additional perspective: You are three times more likely to die from a falling coconut, he said; seven times more likely to die from fireworks, "and way more likely to die from flesh-eating bacteria" (115 fatalities a year) than you are to win the Powerball lottery.


Segueing, then, from death to life, Garibaldi noted that even the best physicians, equipped with the most up-to-date equipment, can't predict the timing of a child's birth with much accuracy.


"But let's suppose," he said, "that your doctor managed to predict the day, the hour, the minute and the second your baby would be born."


The doctor's uncanny prediction would be "at least 100 times" more likely than your winning.


Even though he knows the odds all too well, Garibaldi said he usually plays the lottery.


When it gets this big, I'll buy a couple of tickets," he said. "It's kind of exciting. You get this feeling of anticipation. You get to think about the fantasy."


So, did he buy two tickets this time?


"I couldn't," he told ABC News. "I'm in California" -- one of eight states that doesn't offer Powerball.


In case you were wondering, this Saturday's Powerball jackpot is starting at $40 million.


ABC News Radio contributed to this report.

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